United States Cuba Relations: 2010 Mid-Term Election Analysis

As we predicted, Kendrick Meek, lost the U.S. Senate race in Florida. Sadly his intransigence to remain in the Senate race assured Marco Rubio’s victory. The question that needs to be asked of Mr. Meek is what was his deal with Marco Rubio? Marco Rubio owes Kendrick Meek big time. For Charlie Crist, his political future remains open to challenge Senator Bill Nelson for that seat in 2012. The country took a hard swing to the right yesterday, after taking a hard swing to the left in 2008. At some point, moderation and common sense will prevail over the extremes. Marco Rubio intends to portray himself as Ronald Reagan’s heir. We will see if he is that or more like the movie character, Bob Roberts. (Rent/Watch this movie starring Tim Robbins) One knowledgeable political expert I respect suggested that Marco Rubio may very well be the GOP’s Vice Presidential nominee in 2012.

President Obama and the White House staff should also have learned by now that listening to Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Bill Nelson, Bob Menendez, and Kendrick Meek on Cuba matters is not reliable. This cabal told the President and White House staff to hold off the announcement on new U.S. Cuba travel regulations allowing more travel to Cuba because it was going to hurt the Democrats in Florida in yesterday’s elections. Oh really now? Yesterday's debacle in Florida and across the country had nothing to do with the Cuba issue.

I was asked what the outcome of the elections will mean for United States Cuba policy and relations. Two words will define the next two years – entrenchment and opportunity. There will be entrenchment on U.S. Cuba issues in the next Congress as we will see the following positioning of Pro-Embargo/Anti-Travel Members:

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fl) – Incoming Chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee

Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fl) – Incoming Chairman of House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere

Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) - Incoming Chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere

Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart

Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D-Fl) – Incoming Chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

Incoming Freshman Rep. David Rivera (R-Fl) who will be moving any legislation he can to further restrict travel to Cuba and maintain the embargo.

Incoming Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fl) will retain his hardline position on Cuba as his political backers and money comes from the extreme right wing. However, he was born in the U.S., has never been to Cuba, and knows this issue only as a child of exiles.

With this entrenchment, however, there are still Pro-travel/Anti-embargo Members and opportunity to keep an eye on:

Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Az) will now be in a position to take leadership on this issue in the House. The Republican wave that will take over the House in January 2011 is mostly libertarian and on the issue of American travel to Cuba, there should be many members who will stand on the principle that all Americans should be allowed to travel anywhere of their choosing and spend their own money there, including Cuba. Let’s remember it was Jeff Flake who successfully got the first Cuba travel bill passed out of the Congress when he was a freshman!

Incoming Senators John Hoeven (R-ND) and Jerry Moran (R-Ks) should pick up some of the U.S. Cuba mantle in the Senate.

There will be other members who will step up as well new and old, so the debate in this next round should continue to be robust.

What those who care about this issue must appreciate and understand is that non-profit groups and think tanks who are stalwart proponents of lifting the travel ban and ending the embargo CANNOT DO the political activity that is going to be required to end these insane policies.

Our efforts and resources must be focused on organized political action, fundraising, and playing the political game to win once and for all. It is going to take money from everyone who says they care about this issue to make a contribution so we can support and empower political candidates, Congressional and Presidential, who will take a stand on these issues. To this end, the United States Cuba Political Action has been reactivated and it is organizing to hit the ground running in the next election cycle. Organizations cannot be members of that PAC. But individuals, U.S. citizens and residents, can be involved and donate money. You can make a difference with a donation of $10 - $25 or more up to $5000. Consider the impact what the numbers can be if you and everyone stepped up. Right now on Facebook there is page on Ending the Travel Ban on Cuba with over 23,000 members. Had each one of those individuals donated to the U.S. Cuba PAC, $25 for example, there would have been $575,000 in political money that could have countered the influence of the $1,000,000 raised by that relatively small group of wealthy hardline Cuban exiles who keep this issue strangled in the Congress.

If you want to make a donation and get involved, mail your personal check to:

U.S. Cuba Political Action Committee

PO Box 15874

Tampa FL 33684

Email: uscubapac@gmail.com

There will be an organizational meeting of that PAC in December in Florida. More information about a website, planning, and other contact information will be forthcoming.

The lesson from this election for U.S. Cuba issues is that the majority can no longer be silent or leave this issue up solely up to groups who will not be able to carry this issue across the goal line. Only when you and our community declares that “if it is to be, it is up to me” through committed actions of political donation and organization will we change these policies once and for all. – Tony Martinez